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Whither Japan? by Sir Hugh Cortazzi, Japan Society Southern Counties, Physic Garden, Petersfield, 26 October 2006 Review by Sean Curtin This was a well-attended event organized by the Japan Society Southern Counties which is based mainly in East Hampshire and West Sussex. Sir Hugh Cortazzi delivered a stimulating and wide-ranging talk (see text below) which was followed by a lively question and answer session. The meeting was chaired by Kim Dinham-Peren. Sir Hugh Cortazzi : "The Japanese relationship with China is likely to remain difficult." Japan Society Southern Counties Website Click here Whither Japan? Text of Presentation by Sir Hugh Cortazzi Japan remains the second largest economy in the world and although China and to a lesser extent India are growing fast they are unlikely to overtake Japan for many years to come and much will depend on other factors including the world environment by which I do not mean just global warming and pollution but political factors including the maintenance of world peace. I propose to speak under five many headings, but please bear in mind that all five merge and overlap. My main headings are: Politics, Foreign Policy, Economics, Society and Culture. Politics As you know Japan adopted a new constitution following defeat in the Second World War. The constitution, adopted in 1946 during the allied but essentially American occupation, replaced the so-called Meiji constitution of 1889. The Emperor, who had in theory been central in the Meiji constitution, was declared in the new constitution to be the symbol of the state and his powers became largely formal and symbolic. The constitution provided for equality before the law and for basic human rights including universal adult suffrage and the independence of the judiciary. Executive power was vested in the cabinet but it was made responsible to a bicameral Diet which was declared to be the highest organ of state power. The most controversial article was No 9 which provided that the Japanese people renounced war as a sovereign right and also renounced the threat or use of force as means of settling international disputes. The second part of the article provided that land, sea and air forces would never be maintained and declared that the right of belligerency of the state would not be recognized. Since the war Japanese democracy has on the whole worked well. Power has rested almost wholly with the conservative Liberal Democratic Party (LDP). Its success has been due to a number of factors. It has generally responded to the pressures of public opinion even if only slowly and has thus generally kept its popular mandate. It has had an efficient electoral organization and has been able to tap significant funds by looking after the interests of particular lobby groups especially farmers. The party has eschewed political ideology and personalities have mattered more than policies. It also benefited from the lower house multi-member constituency system which was only modified recently and by the way in which rural areas were over-represented against urban areas by a certain amount of constituency gerrymandering. The party was dominated by factions until Mr Koizumi Junichiro as Prime Minister managed to ride rough-shod over them by appealing to his personal popularity in the country. Another reason for the dominance of the LDP has been the absence of any effective alternative. The socialists were divided into right and left wings and wasted most of their electoral appeal by concentrating almost exclusively on foreign policy issues where they took an anti-American line. They are now largely a spent force. The New Komeito ('Clean Government Party') currently in partnership with the LDP is largely an arm of the Buddhist Sokagakkai and seems unable to expand its representation further. The main opposition party the Democratic Party of Japan which is led by Ozawa Ichiro, a renegade member of the LDP, supports policies which in many respects differ little from that of the LDP. It seesaws in popularity depending on the amount of corruption and sleaze which it can expose. The communists despite the end of the cold war have a hard core of supporters and can be a thorn in the flesh of the Japanese government but do not represent any threat to LDP hegemony. The extreme right are noisy and in cooperation with gangsters (the yakuza) can be a nuisance, but they are not popular. There have been recent signs of growing nationalism and attempts made to intimidate critics. It is most unlikely in the next few years that the dominance in the Japanese government of conservative-minded politicians will be broken. There will inevitably be some shifting of alliances and loyalties but no fundamental changes are on the horizon. Economic reforms may falter, as Mr Abe Shinzo, who took over as Prime Minister in September 2006, and the LDP are not as closely wedded to a free market economy as Mr Koizumi was. We may see a return to a somewhat more dirigiste economic policies although I do not expect that the clock will be turned back more than a little. Japan will not want to jeopardise its ability to compete in the world LDP factions and lobby groups may regain influence and pork barrel politics become even more apparent, but I do not think we shall see a reversion to the old systems of factions and I think that corrupt practices even if they can never be totally eliminated will be kept in check. The two main political issues in the next few years are likely to be the extent to which Japan will become more nationalist and assertive and reform of the constitution. Mr Abe Shinzo, who has succeeded Mr Koizumi Junichiro as leader of the LDP implied in the run up to his election that he would be inclined to pander to right wing nationalist sentiment. But his actions on becoming Prime Minister, in particular his decision to pay an immediate visit to China and to South Korea, suggest that whatever his personal sympathies may be he is a pragmatic politician. There is now a growing consensus in Japan that the constitution, in particular, should be amended. This will not be easy as a two thirds majority is required in both houses of the diet and amendments have to be ratified in a referendum. I feared at one stage that right-wing elements might wish to enhance the constitutional position of the Emperor and reduce the value of constitutional provisions on human rights, but there would be no consensus for changes of this kind and attempts to put the clock back in this way could well prevent the adoption of changes to Article 9. This article has already been interpreted very widely to permit the establishment of the Self-Defence Forces and the despatch of Japanese forces overseas to support UN peace-keeping operations e.g. in Iraq even if only in a non-combatant role. Even though there is a consensus in favour of constitutional change any modification of Japan's pacifist constitution will arouse strenuous opposition from pacifists and left-wing politicians. So it is unlikely that there will be a swift change in the Japanese constitution, but changes will eventually be made. Japanese Self-Defence Forces (JSDF) Despite the constitutional limitations Japan has significant defence forces. Military expenditure in 2005 amounted to US$ 42.1 billion which amounted to approximately 1% of Japan's GDP. The percentage would be higher if certain related expenditure such as pensions were included as they are in the case of NATO countries. In total the JSDF numbered 239,430 in the ground Self-Defence Force, 44,327 in the Maritime Self-Defence Force and 45, 517 in the Air Self-Defence Force. The reserve force numbers 57,899. Civilian control of the forces is firmly established and the equipment of the forces is essentially of a defensive character. Japan for instance has no bomber aircraft. While defence expenditure will probably rise in the light of perceived threats to Japan from North Korea and conceivably China there is unlikely to be a sudden jump. There is no current threat of a revival of militarism or militarist nationalism in Japan. To sum up I conclude that in the foreseeable future Japan will not only remain a parliamentary democracy but will, in relative terms at least, remain politically stable at least over the next few years. The main political focus internally will be on constitutional amendment but there will be some controversy over the extent of growing Japanese nationalism. Further reforms will be needed to cope with the problems of an aging and declining population and these could cause friction and controversy. Foreign Policy The most important foreign policy issues for the Japanese government over the next few years will be the management of relations with the USA, China and the Korean peninsular. All are linked. Relations with the USA The US-Japan Security Treaty is likely to remain of paramount importance to Japan. Japan has no nuclear weapons and is unlikely to acquire them in the foreseeable future despite the atomic test by North Korea in October 2006. The nuclear allergy resulting from the atomic bombs on Hiroshima and Nagasaki in August 1945 is still strong. The US nuclear umbrella remains Japan's main deterrent in relation to China's nuclear arsenal and such few nuclear weapons as North Korea may have. The US nuclear umbrella does not in theory depend on the continued existence of US bases in Japan, Okinawa and South Korea but these undoubtedly increase Japanese confidence in the umbrella. Moreover the possible threats to security in East Asia from North Korea, from the growing strength of Chinese forces and the Chinese threat to Taiwan and other disputed islands mean that Japan and South Korea need the defence capabilities of US forces in the Far East if the balance of power is to be maintained. But the pressures in the US to bring forces home and to squeeze as much financial and material support for US forces out of Japan and Korea are significant. The presence of US bases inevitably results in local frictions especially when criminal cases such as alleged rapes of local girls occur. American occupation of valuable land in cities and in agricultural areas causes problems as do noise and traffic pollution around bases. Unfortunately the American military authorities have not always been as sensitive as they should in handling these issues. The Japanese government which faces serious budgetary problems of its own has understandably been reluctant to pay out the sort of sums required to enable US bases to be relocated to less sensitive areas. Japan's dependence on the United States for its security is, however, such that while I expect that there will be ups and downs in the relationship I think that the Japanese will not want to do anything serious to jeopardise the relationship. I don't see signs at present that the Americas for their part will deliberately want to endanger the relationship. China The Japanese relationship with China is likely to remain difficult. Japan is one of China's most important trading partners providing over 20% of Japanese imports and taking over 13% of Japanese exports. Japanese investment in China is massive and there are large numbers of Japanese plants and of Japanese managers in China. But despite the interdependence of both economies the relationship is sour. There are a number of reasons for this. Growing Chinese nationalism conflicts with growing Japanese nationalism. Japan is fearful of the increasing strength of Chinese forces and the threat to Taiwan (there are also disputes over various other islands in the Pacific). The Chinese tend to see the Japanese security relationship with the USA as directed against them which, of course, it is to a large extent. The Chinese saw the official visits made by former Prime Minister Koizumi to the Yasukuni shrine as provocative which to some extent they were. The Yasukuni shrine is seen by the Chinese as a symbol of Japanese militarism and the fact that the souls of 17 major war criminals, condemned by the Tokyo War Crimes Tribunal, are enshrined there suggests that important elements in the Japanese government do not accept the judgements of the court. The Yasukuni shrine also house a war museum the Yushukan which tends to glorify Japanese warriors as heroes and fails to recognize the sufferings which the Japanese forces inflicted on China and other territories which they occupied. The Chinese are not persuaded that in visiting the shrine officially Mr Koizumi was merely praying for world peace. Unfortunately 'face' was involved and Mr Koizumi, who no doubt saw his visits as a simple way of garnering the votes of the bereaved families and of nationalists, was unwilling to appear to give in to foreign pressure. The problem is, of course, complicated by the perception which is not confined to China that Japan has never come to terms with its past in the way that Germany has done. It is to be hoped that Mr Abe's decision to keep silent about the Yasukuni issue will help to defuse the issue. Mr Abe has declared that Japan will continue to re-examine its wartime past and 'to reflect deeply on having caused so much pain and suffering to the people of Asia and creating woumds'. He also proposed that the two countries undertake joint historical studies, but Mr Taro Aso, the Foreign Minister, is a historical revisionist and may not favour objective studies. The other main issue between Japan and China involves North Korea. Japanese opinion remains understandably worked up about the kidnapping and brainwashing by North Korea of a number of Japanese nationals some of whom died in North Korean hands. North Korea is also suspected of maintaining close contacts with Korean residents in Japan and through them with gangsters (yakuza) and money launderers. But Japan's prime worry is over North Korean claims to have a small nuclear arsenal and over North Korean testing of an atomic bomb and of long range ballistic missiles capable of hitting targets in Japan. Practically no progress has been made in the six power talks (North Korea, China, Russia, South Korea, the USA and Japan) currently in abeyance. The Japanese believe that the Chinese have failed to exercise the leverage which they have over North Korea perhaps in the belief that the North Korean threat can be used to undermine the US position on nuclear proliferation. The Chinese also fear the effect which an implosion in North Korea might have on China with refugees flooding over the border into China. They may consider that the present stalemate is to be preferred to the chaos which might follow. Japan's relations with the Republic of Korea (South Korea) require careful handling. The history of Japanese colonialism in Korea in the first half of the twentieth century inevitably makes the Koreans sensitive towards any suggestion of big brother attitudes on the part of the Japanese. Korean industry competes fiercely with Japanese industries especially in electronics and motor vehicles. The South Korean government have taken a softer line towards North Korea than the Japanese not least because they would be the first to suffer if tensions reached breaking point. Seoul is within artillery range of the North and a flood of refugees from the North could destabilise the Korean economy. Relations with Russia continue to be cool. Although diplomatic relations were re-established over half a century ago no peace treaty has been concluded between the two powers. The main stumbling block remains four islands lying between the Kuriles and Hokkaido (Kunashiri, Etorofu. Habomai and Shikotan) which the Japanese claim do not belong to the Kurile group and which were not ceded by Japan in the San Francisco Treaty of Peace of 1951. Various attempts have been made to find a compromise e.g. through the Russians giving up the two latter (Habomai and Shikotan), but these have come to nothing and the position of both sides has become entrenched. The Japanese want to continue fishing in the area. They also have significant interest in hydrocarbons and minerals in the Russian Far East. Many Japanese still resent the way in which the Russians, who only entered the war against them at the very end, treated Japanese prisoners in Manchuria. There are few grounds for optimism about a settlement being achieved in relations between the two countries. Japan has recently begun to put more emphasis on relations with India. These used to be distant and there was little cultural understanding, but the Japanese now recognize the huge potential of the Indian economy and relations with India are likely to have a fairly high priority in the next few years. Japan has a major interest in ensuring stable supplies of oil. So much attention will be paid to the Middle East. The Japanese will not want to get too far out of line with the United States but Japanese policy especially towards Iran will not always be identical to that of the USA. Europe is seen as the third leg of a triangle with the US but it is a weaker leg not least because there is no security commitment between Japan and Europe. The Japanese will put increasing weight on the dialogue with Europe when Europe shows that it has a common policy. The strains imposed on relations with Britain and the Netherlands by Japanese maltreatment of prisoners of war in the Far East has now largely dissipated not least because there are so few ex-prisoners still living. Fears of Japanese competition have also declined not least because eyes are focussed on China instead. South East Asia and Australasia will, of course, remain significant for Japan not least for reasons of geography and as a source of energy and raw materials. These countries are also important markets for Japan and the Japanese will put more emphasis on trying to develop free trade areas in Asia. Latin America remains important for Japan not least because of the large number of people of Japanese origin in Latin America but also for trade reasons. Some second and third generation racial Japanese have been drifting back to Japan. Africa is not forgotten by the Japanese, but understandably it is rarely given a high priority by Japanese politicians. Economics Japan has finally emerged from a period of serious deflation. Exports and industrial production are now increasing at a fairly healthy rate and fixed investments are growing again. Employment which fell during the deflationary years has increased and wages have also been rising. All this has led to a rise in private consumption. These factors have led the governor of the Bank of Japan to predict that 'the Japanese economy is likely to experience a sustained period of expansion, with domestic and external demand and also the corporate and household sectors well in balance in an environment in which a virtuous cycle of production, income and expenditure will operate.' In 2004 Japan had a growth rate of 2.6%, a GDP at current exchange rates of 4666 billion US$ (3,788 at purchasing power parity (ppp) and a per capita GDP of 36,500 US$ at current exchange rates and 29,600 at ppp. This compares with the US at 39,700, UK 35,500 and China a mere 1,083 US $ per capita. These figures demonstrate the extent and strength of the Japanese economy and Japan's wealth. Japan has huge reserves and a large current account surplus and visible trade balance. Japan's dependence on foreign trade was 10.1% in the case of imports and 13.1% for exports (this latter figure is considerably higher than those for the UK 8.75 and for the USA 7.5%). China provided 20.7% of Japan's imports in 2004 and took 13.1 % of Japanese exports. Japanese direct investment abroad amounted to 31 billion US$. Japan seeks more direct inward investment but this is still small (7.8 billion US$) as compared with outward investment. It is difficult to predict how these figures will change over the next few years but we can be sure that Japanese industry will continue to be a major international competitor. Japan's production of crude steel at 110 million tons is second only to that of China. Japan's production of 10 million motor vehicles is huge and Toyota, which produced some 5 million vehicles, is one of the strongest companies in the world. Japanese productivity remains high with 43% of the world's robots in Japan. Japanese research and development expenditure amounted to 3.5% of GDP in 2003 (as compared to USA 2.61% and UK 1.89%). Japan has a high throughput of engineers and scientists. Nevertheless Japan only ranks 19th in productivity among OECD countries because Japanese productivity in service industries such as construction, agriculture and retail is low. There are, however, 'various risks concerning future developments in the Japanese economy'. One of these is the high price of oil and another is whether the US economy can maintain stable growth. An important factor for the future health of the Japanese economy is the extent to which the pace of deregulation and economic reform which were pursued vigorously while Mr Koizumi was Prime Minister will be maintained. The Japanese banking industry following a series of mergers and the clearing up of many bad loans now looks much healthier than it did. Many of the large corporations have been forced to rationalise their businesses and reduce their permanent work forces. This has made them more competitive. Cross shareholdings have been greatly reduced and improvements have been made in corporate governance. But there is still a significant difference between companies which face international competition and those oriented primarily towards the domestic market. There is still some way to go to open up domestic markets. Although Mr Koizumi worked hard to break up the post office which through its insurance and banking business was anti-competitive it will be many years before privatisation is complete. Mr Koizumi also worked hard to reduce the waste of public funds on building roads and other public facilities, but the public corporations have not yet been tamed and the pork barrel of construction projects still exists with contracts still apparently allocated on a basis which ensures that construction companies get their whack of what is going. The result has sadly been the concreting over of Japan from river beds to mountain tops. It seems unlikely that this process will be stopped in the next few years. Japanese agriculture continues to receive large subsidies despite the fact that farming in Japan is still largely small scale and farmers either old people or weekend farmers. Only very small quantities of rice, Japan's staple foodstuff are imported and the price of rice remains absurdly high, Fruit and vegetable imports as well as those of other foodstuffs are strictly controlled. As a result the costs of fruit in Japan are for instance much higher than in Britain. I doubt whether even if the Doha round of trade negotiations is resuscitated and is successful that we shall see much change in this situation although the rural areas of Japan are increasingly becoming depopulated. All these subsidies for construction and expenditure to prevent bankruptcies have left the Japanese government with a serious budgetary deficit. You will note that the Japanese government deficit meant that in 2005 Japan was dependent on bond issues to cover 42% of government expenditure. Fortunately Japan still has a healthy savings rate of 7.4% (UK 5.6%) but this is likely to decline as the Japanese population ages. Japanese taxes on income and on inheritance are high and need to be revamped to ensure that they do not act as a disincentive to earn and save, but the Japanese consumption tax at 5% is low as compared with VAT rates in Europe. It seems probable that the rate will have to go up perhaps in stages to 10%. But the fear remains that an increase in the rate would reignite deflationary pressures and set back economic growth. So timing will be crucial. Japanese regions have been going through a thin time. Mr Koizumi has tried to revamp local government finance and delegate more powers to the prefectures with only limited success. Regional development and further mergers of towns and villages will be a continuing priority in Japan. Unemployment, which had hardly existed in the 'bubble' economy before deflation set in, became a serious issue although the number of unemployed never reached the high levels seen in some European countries. Japanese employees had been generally well protected by the jobs for life and promotion by seniority system which was an important feature of major Japanese enterprises. But the system could not be maintained in an era of declining profits and Japanese firms have moved towards promotion by merit. They have also taken on fewer permanent employees and instead recruited more temporary workers, who are easier to lay off in difficult times, and part-timers. This has led to an increasing number of young Japanese who float from job to job - the so-called 'freeters'. There have also been growing numbers of NEETS meaning 'not in employment and not in education or training'. The Japanese safety net for displaced workers has been inadequate and in big cities 'cardboard housing' has been set up in empty spaces and underground complexes to house the down and out. The biggest problem for Japan in the next decades will be that of an aging and declining population. The Japanese population is now some 128 million but on present trends is expected to decline to 112 million by 2050. Japan's net reproduction rate of 1.25 is among the lowest in the world (Italy, Spain and Germany have comparable levels). As Japan has the highest life expectancy in the world the proportion of Japan's aging population over 65 in 2000 was 17.2% and is likely to be 35.9 % in 2050. (The expected figure for Britain in 2050 is 23.2%). The Japanese government are well aware of the implications but there are no easy solutions. Some of the difficulties in dealing with the problem are psychological and social. Japanese society remains male dominated despite the fact that discrimination on grounds of sex is illegal. Efforts are being made to combat these trends and to provide more child care, but these efforts will need to be expanded soon. Another problem is that Japan does not welcome refugees and economic migrants. Even nurses and carers from neighbouring countries such as the Philippines are subject to strict quota restrictions. The aging population means that old age pensions and health care are going to take an increasing share of the national income. Costs will have to be pruned and contributions increased further. Such measures will not be popular. Doctors and dentists in Japan are well organized and are already among the wealthiest professions in the country. The Japanese economy has significant strengths and Japanese exports will be competitive for years to come. It faces difficult problems but probably no more than those faced by other advanced economies. Much will inevitably depend on what happens to the world economy and this depends to a great extent on such political factors as world peace and the fight against terrorism. The challenge from the growing economies of China and to a lesser extent India will be significant but should not be exaggerated. China has a long way to go to catch up. Society Japanese society has been changing fast. Old style arranged marriages are now rare although even in so called love-matches a 'go-between' (Nakodo) may be nominated if only to preside at the wedding. Japanese families are now small; many only have one child. The days when aged parents could rely on their children for care and support in old age have not entirely past, but few Japanese houses have room for grandparents and many inevitably have to be cared for in old people's homes. This trend will inevitably continue. While many mothers cease to work when children are born and have concentrated on pushing their children to do well at school becoming what the Japanese term kyoiku-mama (education mothers), more mothers are now going back to work and putting their children into crèches. But Japan is behind other advanced countries in ensuring equality between the sexes and in both pay and promotion prospects Japanese women remain at a disadvantage. Change is coming but slowly. It will need to change faster if Japan is to cope with its population problem. Japanese educational standards remain comparatively high, but there are significant concerns about education in Japan. On the one hand there are sections of opinion which demand a reversion to old style teaching and discipline and would like to see an emphasis in teaching on patriotism and Confucian virtues. They argue that liberalism in education has led to a decline in standards and behaviour. The 'liberals' argue that Japanese education is still too rigid and does no encourage as it should independent thought. Pupils are taught to listen and absorb rather than to question. They assert that the hot-house competitive atmosphere of schools has led to a significant increase in the number of drop-outs and recluses who stay shut up at home without contact with their peers (hikkomi). This controversy will continue and while there is likely to be some reversion to more formal teaching the pressures of competition to get into the best schools and universities will inevitably decline as the number of young people declines. The competition will then be between employers seeking to tap a smaller pool of talented and educated young people. Japanese universities vary in standard from very good (e.g. the national universities of Tokyo and Kyoto and private universities such as Keio and Waseda) to poor institutions which do little more than add a nominal qualification to the c.v.s of young people. Japanese universities like universities in other developed countries, face serious financial problems which few academics are qualified to tackle. Japan remains generally a safe country with relatively few crimes of violence and a general reputation for honesty in day to day transactions. But crime rates have been rising. Many of these are ascribed to foreigners and this increases xenophobia. The Japanese system of justice is slow and the fact that the vast majority of those indicted plead guilty suggests that police methods may not be as equitable as people would like to believe. Japan, like the USA, retains the death penalty and Japanese prisons would not meet the sort of standards advocated by the Howard League for penal reform. Changes should come but they will come slowly. Culture Japanese culture over the centuries has managed to absorb and adapt other cultures and give the imported elements a Japanese characteristic flavour. Japanese culture is flourishing today in both its classical and modern forms. The Kabuki, the Noh, Joruri or Bunraku (the puppet theatre) all attract large and enthusiastic audiences. Japanese dance and music are studied widely. Ikebana (flower arranging) has a number of wealthy schools. Japanese continue to build Japanese style gardens. Many of these traditional art forms have experimented with modern innovations. Japan also has some of the top soloists in western classical music and a number of orchestras which can vie with the best in the world. Japanese audiences for opera, ballet and classical music generally are among the most enthusiastic in the world and ticket prices among the highest. The best Japanese novels are translated into English and are highly regarded by literary critics. As you know two Japanese novelists since the war have been awarded the Nobel prize for literature. The composition of haiku has spread to English. Japanese artists have continued to produce great paintings in the Nihonga style and Japanese collectors have bought significant western works of art especially of impressionist paintings. Japanese artists in the avant garde style such as Murakami Takashi are increasingly popular in Europe. You may or may not like manga and anime, but they are Japanese art forms which have been taken up with enthusiasm by westerners. Meanwhile the Japanese film industry continues to produce films of very high quality. Japan will, I am confident, remain a significant and innovative cultural force in the world not only in traditional but also in modern art forms. Language The Japanese language has been changing and will continue to change. Some observers deplore the Japanese tendency to adopt foreign words (perhaps because they sound exotic) where a suitable Japanese word exists. Why for instance say supiido rather than use the Japanese word sokudo. Both mean speed. Or why refer to 'fruit' as furutsu when there is a Japanese word kudamono with the same meaning. But we should not get too fussed about this. The Japanese language like every other world language has to adapt. I don't think that in Japan it will give way to any other language. Nor do I see any likelihood of the roman script being adapted. Apart from traditional objections including the effect this would have on the accessibility of Japanese literature the roman script is not suited to the large number of words with the same sound but using different characters which occur in Japanese. Japanese is not easy for foreigners to learn to read and write even if it is not so difficult to learn to speak Japanese on day to day matters. Foreigners who live in Japan and do not learn at least a modicum of Japanese are missing an important element in living there. More and more Japanese are becoming proficient in English but they do not find it easy and for effective communication there is no substitute for learning your friend's language. Conclusion Whither Japan? I think it is clear from what I have said that on the whole I am relatively optimistic about Japan at least in the next few years. Of course Japan faces problems as we all do. If I had to specify a single aspect which gives particular concern it has to be Japan's declining population for which I see no easy solution. Japan will not disappear as the extreme pessimists have implied and a smaller population will not necessarily be bad for the country. After all the population of Japan one hundred years ago was about half of what it is today, but it will be difficult for Japan to remain competitive, if almost half its population is over 60 even if the majority are still active and healthy. A lesser concern is that an aging population could become introverted and focussed on the so-called uniqueness of Japan, which is, of course, a myth. Japanese can be proud of their culture but need to do all they can to think and behave as internationalists working with not against other countries and avoid reverting to outdated nationalism.

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