Webinar Video + Report - Taiwan Tensions – Implications for China, the US, Japan and Europe
How will recent events such as the visit by Speaker of the U.S House of Representatives Nancy Pelosi to Taiwan affect China, the US, Japan and Europe? This formed the agenda for the Japan Society webinar on 12 September, where Bill Emmott was joined by two world experts on the politics and diplomatic relations of the region, Yasuhiro Matsuda and Meia Nouwens. Yasuhiro Matsuda is a professor at the University of Tokyo’s Institute for Advanced Studies on Asia, and Meia Nouwens is a Senior Fellow for Chinese Defence Policy and Military Modernisation at the International Institute for Strategic Studies.
This insightful discussion began with Japan Society Chair Bill Emmott placing the Russian invasion of Ukraine in the context of the deterioration of the relative peace that Western and East Asian powers have enjoyed since the 1990s, and forecasts that this may very well be a continuing trend throughout the 2020s, noting Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s warning that “Ukraine today could be East Asia tomorrow”.
Yasuhiro Matsuda had recently spent time inTaiwan. He noted that despite the escalating tensions between China and the United States over Taiwan, particularly in light of Nancy Pelosi’s visit, Taiwanese society does not emanate a sense of panic over the current situation. He exemplified this by highlighting that Taiwanese media is not using the term “crisis” to define the ongoing situation. In Prof. Matsuda’s analysis, the actions of President Xi were deliberate and calculated, noting that with Taiwanese presidential elections taking place in 2024, keeping the pro-China kuomintang (KMT) on-side will be crucial in furthering President Xi’s long-term ambitions of Chinese re-unification.
Meia Nouwens offered a complementary, European, perspective on the ongoing situation in East Asia. She expanded on Prof. Matsuda’s assessment of the trip by Nancy Pelosi by highlighting that the response by European leaders had been notably mild. During a period of significant economic downtown coupled with rampant inflation, this was not unsurprising, as further escalating tensions between Europe and one of its biggest markets and a key link in the global supply chain would almost certainly exacerbate the economic issues already facing European nations.
Shifting the focus back to East Asia, our speakers were asked about the practicalities of conflict. Matsuda’s assessment was that, contrasting to our perhaps conventional wisdom, the PLA (People’s Liberation Army) did not have the capabilities to invade and occupy Taiwan entirely, assuming that support for Taiwan from the United States did arrive. Nouwens supported this argument, stating that much still needed to be done for the PLA to become fully capable of a full-scale invasion, both on a weapons front and personnel and battle experience front.
They both concluded that the scenario of conflict is seemingly inevitable in the next ten years, and that the moment for invasion will be one that is precisely calculated by President Xi, and will certainly be his defining legacy.
We would like to thank Professor Matsuda and Ms Nowens for their fascinating contributions to this event, and look forward to their involvement in future Japan Society webinars.
Report by Rhys Crossman
Webinar Full Video
The full video of the webinar is now available on the Japan Society YouTube channel. You can find all the details and more recordings from the webinar series here.